Hong Kong’s stock market is set to experience a surge in supply pressure in 2026 as US$274 billion worth of shares from IPO lock-ups become tradable over the next year [1, 2]. July alone will see the largest monthly expiry of locked shares this year, with at least HK$255 billion (about US$32.5 billion) released into the market [2].
Lock-up periods, which typically last six months after an IPO, prevent insiders and early investors from selling shares immediately. Once these restrictions lift, the sudden increase in available shares often weighs on stock prices [1, 2]. Goldman Sachs analysts including Si Fu noted that stocks historically drop a median 4% in the three months and 7% in six months following lock-up expiry due to increased supply and technical selling pressure [2].
Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset, said, “Lock-up expiry is the supply risk investors cannot ignore. Names with large share releases, especially those already sitting on big post-IPO gains, can face technical selling pressure unless fresh liquidity arrives to absorb the paper.” [1]
Hong Kong equities have lagged global and regional peers in 2026. The Hang Seng Index has declined about 3%, while South Korea’s Kospi and Taiwan’s Taiex gained over 100% and 57% respectively [2]. This underperformance partly stems from limited exposure to artificial intelligence stocks and lingering concerns about China’s economy [1, 2]. Companies facing big lock-up expiries include AI model developer MiniMax Group, Knowledge Atlas Technology, Insilico Medicine Cayman TopCo, Shanghai Biren Technology, GigaDevice Semiconductor, and Sany Heavy Industry [2].
Despite the looming pressure, corporate support and fresh liquidity inflows remain important buffers to mitigate sharp downside risks from these expiries [1]. However, the sheer scale of the supply entering the market this year poses a major test for Hong Kong stocks.
The peak of the lock-up expiry wave will come in July 2026, when the largest amount of shares is set to become tradable [2]. Market participants will closely watch the price reactions and liquidity conditions surrounding this key month.
