The Hong Kong government raised its full-year 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.5%-4.5%, up from the previous range of 2.5%-3.5%, following a strong economic performance in the first half of the year [1, 2, 3]. The economy grew 5.1% year-on-year in the first six months of 2026, marking the strongest half-year expansion in nearly five years [1, 2, 3].
Growth slowed slightly in the second quarter, with GDP increasing 4.3%, down from 5.9% in the first quarter, but remained robust overall [1, 2, 3]. The rebound was driven by a surge in goods exports, which rose 28.9% year-on-year in Q2, fueled by strong global demand for AI-related electronic products and infrastructure spending [1, 2]. Services exports also grew 3.4%, supported by cross-border travel, financial services, and inbound tourism [1, 2].
Private consumption increased 2.8% in Q2, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of growth as consumer confidence improved [1, 2]. Investment advanced 4.4%, led by robust private-sector spending [1].
The government highlighted potential risks to the outlook, including rising global oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could add inflationary pressures [1, 2]. Major banks HSBC and UBS have also raised their 2026 growth forecasts for Hong Kong to 4.5%, reflecting optimism among financial institutions [1].
Irina Fan, a government economist, said, "The Hong Kong economy should see solid growth in the second half of 2026" as momentum continues [1]. The government’s revised forecast was officially announced on August 14, 2026, setting expectations for sustained expansion for the remainder of the year [1, 2, 3].
