Hong Kong's economy expanded 5.9% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, accelerating from 4.0% in Q4 2025 and 3.1% in Q1 2025, official data showed [1, 2, 3]. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the economy grew 2.9% from the previous quarter [1, 2, 3].
The Hong Kong government kept its GDP growth forecast for 2026 unchanged at between 2.5% and 3.5% [1, 3]. A government spokesman said, "Looking ahead, Hong Kong's economic outlook remains broadly resilient. Strong global demand for advanced electronics and AI‑related products is expected to support goods export performance, while services exports should remain firm, underpinned by sustained vibrancy in inbound tourism, robust cross-boundary financial activity, and steady demand for business services" [1].
Inbound tourism remains a key driver of the economy, supporting growth in services exports alongside strong global demand for advanced technology goods [1, 3]. This contributed to sustained momentum in the first quarter.
Meanwhile, Macau saw a revised real GDP of MOP 107.56 billion for Q1 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [4]. Macau's inbound visitors jumped 13.7% year-on-year in the quarter, helping raise services export by 12.8% [4]. Goods exports grew 1.1%, while goods imports increased 5.8% year-on-year [4].
Hong Kong’s consumer price inflation forecast for 2026 stands at 2.6% headline and 2.5% underlying inflation [1].
The government will continue monitoring global demand and inbound tourism trends as key factors shaping economic performance throughout 2026.
