OPEC+ plans to approve a 188,000 barrels per day increase to its oil production quota for September 2026 during a virtual meeting held on August 2, 2026 [1, 2, 3]. After this last planned hike, the group expects to pause further increases in 2026 due to concerns over the volatile supply impact caused by the ongoing Iran war [1, 2, 3].
According to two OPEC+ delegates, the decision reflects a cautious stance amid fast-changing conditions in the Middle East, with the group currently having no plans for any production increases beyond September [1, 2, 3]. "This is only the current plan and may change depending on circumstances," one delegate said [1].
The Iran conflict has roiled oil markets, with Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz disrupting shipments and causing price volatility [1, 3]. Oil prices peaked above US$100 per barrel in July 2026 due to rising tensions but have since fallen below US$90 following a temporary pause in US-Iran hostilities [1].
Iran has also rejected Oman's proposal for a dual-directional traffic separation scheme (TSS) in the strategic Strait of Hormuz and is seeking greater control over shipping lanes. Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, said Tehran no longer accepts the 1968 IMO-approved TSS, which places most routes in Omani waters. He said the arrangement no longer guarantees Iran’s national security since US and Israeli attacks earlier this year and Iran demands more control over future two-way routes [3].
OPEC+ members continue to monitor these geopolitical risks closely, balancing supply increases with market stability. The virtual meeting on August 2 will confirm the extent of September’s quota rise. Beyond that, OPEC+ plans to keep production steady for the remainder of 2026, adjusting as needed to the evolving situation [1, 2, 3].
