S&P Global Ratings changed Mexico’s credit outlook from stable to negative on May 13, 2026, while maintaining its BBB rating, two notches above junk status and on par with Indonesia and Greece [1, 2]. The downgrade reflects weak fiscal results, rising government debt, and slow economic growth. S&P noted the risk of very slow fiscal consolidation, with low growth driving faster-than-expected debt buildup and a higher interest burden [1, 2].
Moody’s Ratings also assigned Mexico a negative outlook on its credit rating, signaling similar concerns about fiscal stability [1, 2]. Fitch Ratings currently rates Mexico one level above junk with a stable outlook, diverging slightly from the other two firms [1, 2].
S&P warned that if two of the three major rating agencies reduce Mexico’s rating to junk, some money managers would be forced to sell Mexico government bonds, potentially pressuring markets [1, 2]. The agency highlighted the fiscal strain from Mexico’s president Claudia Sheinbaum’s bailout package for state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos, saying continued support would worsen fiscal rigidities [1].
Investor sentiment is also dampened by uncertainty over the 2026 review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade deal, which adds to financial market concerns [1]. The outlook change came just days after Yahoo Taiwan reported on the downgrade and the mixed positions of Moody’s and Fitch on May 12 [2].
