SpaceX shares plunged to roughly $107–$113 in late July 2026, trading approximately 20% below their IPO price and about 47–50% below their June 16 peak of $225.64 per share [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]. The decline has cost SpaceX over $1.2 trillion in market value, a sum roughly equivalent to Tesla's total valuation [1, 2, 6, 3, 4].

A lock-up release scheduled for August 6 is expected to make 911.5 million shares available for trade, increasing downward pressure on the stock [1, 2, 3, 4]. By the end of 2026, the total tradable shares could reach 5.33 billion [2]. Roughly 30% of currently tradable shares are sold short, generating nearly $8 billion in unrealized profits for short sellers [1, 2].

Despite the stock drop, Elon Musk retains a 60% stake in SpaceX. However, his net worth has dropped alongside the shares to around $715.6 billion, still leaving him the richest person globally [4].

SpaceX completed its 13th Starship test flight between July 24-25, deploying 20 upgraded Starlink V3 satellites and returning safely. The upper stage performed well, but the booster landing was less successful, with engine re-ignition issues noted [1, 2, 6, 3, 4]. Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned said, "Although booster operations seemed mostly successful, the landing failed and still requires improvement" [4]. Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale added, "Overall test progress helps reduce commercial risk going forward" [7].

The company faces large losses, including a $43 billion quarterly loss in Q1 2026, related to capital expenditures and heavy AI investment burn [7]. Estimated 2025 revenue was $187 billion versus $207 billion in capital expenditures [7].

Many Wall Street analysts maintain a bullish view. Nearly 80% rate SpaceX shares a buy, with average price targets near $232, suggesting potential for recovery [4, 7]. Raymond James issued a controversial $800 target price, implying a $10 trillion market cap by 2031 based on aggressive revenue growth assumptions [7]. Other firms consider this overly optimistic given SpaceX's current losses and financial challenges [5].

The decline in SpaceX shares coincided with sell-offs in technology and AI stocks globally amid geopolitical uncertainties. Taiwan and South Korean stock markets also experienced sharp volatility in late July and early August 2026 [1, 2, 6, 3, 4, 5].

Wall Street firms such as Morgan Stanley and Citibank have launched structured notes linked to SpaceX shares with downside protection, targeting wealthy investors [5].

SpaceX is set to release its first post-IPO quarterly earnings report after markets close on August 4, 2026 [3, 4]. This report will provide further insight into the company’s financial health amid continued market volatility.