Indonesia blocked access to the prediction market platform Polymarket on May 25, 2026, labeling it a form of illegal online gambling [1, 2]. The ban followed Polymarket hosting bets on the possible early departure of President Prabowo Subianto, whose current term is set to end in October 2029 [1, 2].
Polymarket launched wagers on May 21, 2026, the day after Prabowo announced tighter government controls on major commodity exports [1, 2]. The bets allowed users to speculate on three dates for the president’s potential exit: the end of May, June, or December 2026 [1]. By the time Indonesia blocked the site, the Prabowo wager had generated over US$44,000 in trading volume [1].
Indonesia’s Communications and Digital Ministry said the government will not permit any form of online gambling in the country. A ministry official, Alexander Sabar, called Polymarket’s activities “betting and speculation over events that are inconclusive,” which violates Indonesian law [1, 3, 2]. He added, "Polymarket was classified as an online gambling platform and its activities contain betting and speculation over events that are inconclusive, therefore violating Indonesian law" [3].
The ministry also said it will monitor social media accounts promoting Polymarket within Indonesia [1, 2]. Meanwhile, Polymarket expressed willingness to work with Indonesian authorities on innovation in prediction markets, stating, "We welcome the opportunity to collaborate with Indonesia on a path forward that supports responsible innovation, transparency and user protection in prediction markets" [3].
The timeline of events began with Polymarket launching the controversial presidential bets on May 21, 2026, shortly after Prabowo’s policy announcement [1, 2]. Four days later, Indonesia moved to block the platform and announced a crackdown citing its online gambling laws [1, 2, 3].
