PAS officially ended its political cooperation with Bersatu following a special central working committee meeting, fracturing the opposition coalition Perikatan Nasional ahead of the Johor and Negeri Sembilan state elections [1]. Experts say the break will weaken the opposition by splitting Malay votes among PAS, Bersatu, independents, and new political groups [1, 2, 3].

PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang endorsed a new party launched today by former opposition leader Hamzah Zainudin, Parti Wawasan Negara, signaling PAS’ further distancing from Bersatu [4, 5, 6]. Hadi had previously suggested the party’s name and PAS has severed ties with Bersatu entirely [4, 5, 6].

Political analyst Datuk Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the split will reduce strategic coordination and cause vote splitting that weakens the opposition in both Johor and Negeri Sembilan [1]. Associate Professor Dr Mazlan Ali noted the conflict raises doubts about whether the opposition can remain credible alternatives if voters are dissatisfied with the ruling administrations [2].

The opposition’s Malay vote may fragment, with Bersatu likely hardest hit. Observers say Bersatu relies heavily on PAS’ well-organized grassroots and election machinery, especially in rural Malay-majority areas where PAS has stronger influence [1, 2, 7, 3]. Mujibu Abd Muis said without PAS’s disciplined machinery, Bersatu may struggle to defend its existing seats [2].

In the 2022 Johor election, Perikatan Nasional won 3 of 56 seats: PAS took Maharani, while Bersatu won Endau and Bukit Kepong [2, 7]. In Negeri Sembilan’s 2023 election, Perikatan Nasional claimed 5 seats—PAS won Serting, Bagan Pinang, Paroi and Bersatu secured Labu and Gemas [2, 7]. Johor’s state assemblyman Alwiyah Talib left Bersatu early this month to rejoin Umno, further weakening Bersatu’s position ahead of the July 11 election [2, 7, 8].

Johor’s July 11 state election features numerous marginal seats with razor-thin majorities and multiple parties competing. Key battlegrounds include Tangkak, Serom, Bukit Naning, Parit Yaani, Kemelah, Kempas, Tiram, Kota Iskandar, and Bentayan [9, 8]. Margins in some constituencies were under 400 votes last election, underscoring the close contests expected [8].

Professor Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian warned that if PAS and Bersatu run separately, vote splitting will likely benefit rival political groups and reduce cohesion in campaigns [10]. The approaching Johor polls will mark the first major test of the opposition post-split. All eyes are on whether Perikatan Nasional can maintain its foothold with a fractured coalition.