The World Trade Organization (WTO) released its latest Goods Trade Barometer report on June 5, 2026, showing a decline in global merchandise trade growth indicators amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East [1, 2, 3]. The barometer index fell from 102.3 in January to 101.7 in April 2026, signaling a possible slowdown in trade growth, though it remains above the long-term trend [1, 2, 3].
The WTO forecast in March 2026 that world trade growth in goods would slow sharply to 1.9% in 2026 from 4.6% in 2025, reflecting weaker momentum [1, 2, 3]. The report notes that the Middle East conflict is negatively impacting global trade by pushing energy prices higher and disrupting transportation routes, which could further decelerate growth if the conflict continues [1, 2, 3].
Despite these headwinds, demand for AI-related electronic components has helped offset some losses. The electronic components trade index stood at 105.5 in April, well above trend, supporting trade resilience in the tech sector [1]. However, agricultural raw materials lagged slightly below trend during the same period [1].
Growth in shipping sectors also showed signs of moderation but remains above trend. The air freight index was 102.2 and the container shipping index 102.4, both reflecting slower but still positive growth [1]. The WTO explains that a barometer reading above 100 indicates trade growth faster than usual or acceleration soon, while below 100 signals weakening or expected weakening growth [1, 2, 3].
The report offers a mixed outlook for 2026, dependent on geopolitical developments. If the Middle East conflict continues to push energy prices higher and disrupt transport, global trade growth could weaken further [1, 2, 3]. The WTO will monitor these trends closely in upcoming reports.
