Barisan Nasional (BN) has announced it will contest all 56 state seats in the upcoming Johor state election independently, without forming a coalition with Pakatan Harapan (PH) [1, 2, 3]. Responding directly to BN’s move, PH has vowed to contest all 56 seats as well. Johor PH chairman Aminolhuda Hassan said, "They have already announced they want to contest all 56 seats. Therefore, PH Johor will also contest all 56 seats" [1].
The 15th Johor state election took place on March 12, 2022, with BN winning 40 seats, PH 12, Perikatan Nasional 3, and Muda 1. BN’s Johor seats are mainly held by Umno (33), MCA (4), and MIC (3) [1]. Former Umno Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin supports BN’s decision to run solo, stating, "In my view, we should test BN's real strength by contesting solo in the Johor state election. We can then see how strong the party really is..." [3].
The split between BN and PH comes amid rising tensions within the incumbent unity government coalition. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who is also PH chairman, said on May 17 he is considering calling a snap general election due to escalating strain in relations within the coalition. He said, "Not only at the state level, but we are seriously considering that if this approach continues to strain and fracture relations within the government, then we may have to consider holding a general election nationwide" [4]. Anwar described federal relations as "cordial" for now but warned that "If they decide to go against the agreements, then the elections will not only just be in Johor and other states" [5]. He added he will meet PH leadership to discuss early elections but gave no date [4, 5].
Tensions have been highlighted by BN’s independent Johor decision and political crises in neighbouring Negeri Sembilan, where Umno assemblymen withdrew support from their Menteri Besar. Pakatan Harapan leaders likened BN’s actions to betrayal and a "troubled marriage" [4, 6, 7, 8]. Meanwhile, PKR vice-president Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari said PH is more consolidated after recent party elections and three years in government, despite some elements trying to cause distractions [9].
Anwar also faces pressure from economic challenges, including a fuel subsidy crisis with costs estimated at 4 billion ringgit monthly and rising oil prices, increasing urgency for early polls before spending cuts are required [10]. The Prime Minister met King Sultan Ibrahim on May 18 in a routine audience amid election speculation [2, 10].
Two former PKR leaders, Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, left to lead a smaller party in recent days, further challenging coalition cohesion [9, 2]. The Johor state election is scheduled soon with BN and PH set for a full-scale fight across all seats.
Political watchers will watch closely as campaign preparations intensify. Anwar will hold further PH leadership meetings to decide if a snap general election will be called.
