Brazilian brokerage XP released a thematic note on June 3 combining a probabilistic model of the 2026 World Cup with investment opportunities in Brazil's retail and beverage sectors [1, 2]. XP's model, which uses 10,000 simulations and data from 3,300 international matches, gives France a 9% chance to win the tournament scheduled for July 2026 in the US, Canada, and Mexico. Spain is second with a 6.4% probability, followed by Argentina at 6.1% and Brazil at 6% [1, 2]. This contrasts with a Goldman Sachs model estimating Spain's winning chance at a much higher 26%, ahead of France, Argentina, and Brazil [1, 2].
XP expects the expanded 48-team World Cup to boost sectors including tourism, transport, themed consumption, and streaming across the host countries [1, 2]. In Brazil, XP highlights retail segments such as apparel, electronics, and food, along with beverage companies, as key investment plays poised to benefit from World Cup-driven demand [1, 2]. Grupo SBF, the distributor of Brazil’s Nike kits, is singled out as a primary direct retail beneficiary of World Cup excitement. In beverages, brewer Ambev stands out for expected growth from event-related consumption [1, 2].
Brazilian food processor MBRF anticipates sales tied to World Cup gatherings could rise by up to 50% compared with the 2022 Qatar tournament, helped by promotional campaigns and a longer competition calendar [1, 2]. MBRF’s marketing VP Manoel Martins noted that the World Cup will coincide with other strong seasonal sales periods such as year-end festivities and Mother’s Day, further boosting demand [1, 2]. The favorable scheduling of Brazil’s matches on weekends and Fridays is also expected to increase gatherings and sales of food and snack products [1, 2].
The 2026 World Cup’s July schedule and expanded format have attracted significant attention from investors and consumer goods companies in Brazil, as they expect multiple sectors to benefit from increased consumption and tourism. XP continues to monitor trends as the tournament approaches.
The World Cup kicks off in July 2026, with XP’s probabilistic forecast and sector outlook providing key perspectives for investors ahead of the event [1, 2].