Economists revised Singapore’s GDP growth forecast for the second quarter of 2026 down to 3.9% from 4.5% amid growing global uncertainties [1, 2]. The full-year 2026 GDP growth outlook was also lowered to 3.3% from 3.5%, signaling slower economic expansion than previously expected [1, 2].

At the same time, economists raised headline inflation forecasts for 2026 to 2.3% from a prior 1.5%, while core inflation—excluding volatile food and energy prices—was lifted to 2% from 1.5% [1, 2]. These upward revisions reflect pressures from supply disruptions and energy cost increases.

The Singapore government maintained its official 2026 growth projection at between 2% and 4% but pointed to increased downside risks amid supply chain challenges stemming from the Middle East conflict and energy market volatility [1, 2]. Supply chain disruptions have extended beyond crude oil, pushing up production costs and squeezing profit margins in energy-intensive industries.

Ahmad Mobeen, principal economist for Asia-Pacific at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said, "These developments will compress margins in energy-intensive sectors, while increased uncertainty around global trade flows is likely to dampen investment and production decisions and export orders in the coming quarters" [1].

Chua Han Teng, senior economist at DBS Bank, added that "Singapore’s growth is expected to be uneven and challenged by external uncertainties even as key export sectors continue to show momentum" [1].

A Bloomberg News survey conducted in early June 2026 captured these revised economic forecasts reflecting changing market conditions [2]. The government’s May 2026 update reiterated the growth outlook but highlighted growing risks to the outlook due to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions [2].

The economic outlook points to a challenging environment for Singapore in 2026 as trade uncertainties and higher input costs weigh on growth prospects. Policymakers and businesses will watch for developments in energy markets and global trade flows in the coming months.