Renewed tit-for-tat military strikes between the US and Iran around late June 2026 triggered a rise in oil prices due to supply concerns through the Strait of Hormuz [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7]. A very large crude carrier, the Kiku, carrying about 2 million barrels of Qatari crude was hit near Fujairah off the UAE, marking one of the attacks that ignited the flare-up [1]. The US responded by striking Iranian military targets after Tehran attacked commercial vessels [1, 4].

Oil prices rose on June 29, with Brent crude trading around $72 to $73.39 per barrel and WTI near $70 to $70.75 per barrel [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7]. Fabien Yip of IG said, “Brent’s partial rebound this morning reflects a market that had perhaps run too quickly on ceasefire optimism... Thursday’s attack on a commercial vessel was a reality check,” underscoring the fragile outlook [5]. Haris Khurshid of Karobaar Capital added, “The market feels increasingly comfortable treating these moves as tactical rather than structural,” suggesting some traders expect supply disruptions to be short-term [1].

Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz slowed after attacks beginning June 25, although traffic had previously neared pre-war levels [2, 6]. Some tankers aborted exit attempts, and hundreds of ships remain delayed or trapped in the Persian Gulf amid security fears [1, 7]. Saudi Aramco resumed crude loadings at its Ras Tanura terminal west of the strait on June 26 after nearly four months of halt [2, 6]. Bob Yawger of Mizuho noted, “Not every barrel is going to come out the Gulf in the next week or two... As long as the situation is risky, anyone owning a boat runs the risk of having that boat attacked.” [6]

On June 18, the US and Iran signed an interim deal allowing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and set a 60-day deadline for a final agreement [8]. Following the renewed attacks starting June 25, the US and Iran reportedly agreed to a halt in strikes and planned talks on June 30 in Doha to discuss the strait and related disputes [1, 2, 6, 7]. A senior US official said technical talks were ongoing despite reports of paused negotiations, stating, “Technical talks are slated to continue on all areas of the MOU. Both sides will stand down for now and vessels can move freely.” [4]

However, Tehran has not confirmed the Doha talks [7]. Iranian and Omani experts also planned discussions on redefining transit paths through the strait shortly after the incidents [6].

The next step is the planned US-Iran meeting in Doha on June 30 to discuss the Strait of Hormuz and attempt to resolve related issues [1, 6, 7].