US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz on August 30, marking the first US attack on Iranian targets since late July [1, 2, 3, 4]. In response, Iran launched missile strikes on US air bases in Jordan and attacked US allies in Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE with further missile and drone attacks [1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9].
Following the US strike, oil prices surged over 2% on August 31, with Brent crude topping $90 a barrel and WTI near $86 [1, 2, 3, 4, 8]. By September 1-3, Brent crude approached $96 per barrel and WTI neared $92, hitting six-week highs amid concerns of extended disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz [6, 7, 10, 11, 9]. The strait previously carried around 20 million barrels daily before the conflict started in late February 2026 [6, 3, 11, 9].
Despite ongoing clashes, some oil continues to transit the strait, with approximately 17 million barrels passing through on September 1, though many vessels sail with transponders off amid security fears [5, 6, 3, 9]. Maritime traffic has declined, with only about five visible commodity vessels crossing daily over the last weekend of August [1, 4].
US Central Command confirmed successful strikes targeting Iranian air defenses, radar, and mine-laying capabilities around September 1 [6, 3]. Meanwhile, Iran continued missile attacks on US allies in the region, with Kuwait intercepting missiles and drones amid the fighting on September 3 [11].
US President Donald Trump described the conflict as a "little war," stating US strikes were retaliation for Iran's attempts to mine the strait and earlier attacks on US bases [6, 10, 9]. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, "Iran’s bankruptcy is in the 'acceleration phase'" and added, "the Islamic Republic doesn’t have control of the strait" [6, 4, 9].
Energy analysts warned that the situation remains volatile. Tony Sycamore of IG said, "Looks like we are in another escalation phase. How long that lasts is impossible to determine. Could be days, could be weeks" [1]. Bart Melek of TD Securities noted, "We continue to expect crude prices to move higher, as there are no signs that normal transit through the Strait of Hormuz will resume in the near term" [5]. Saul Kavonic of MST Marquee added that the rapid escalation was driving a risk premium into oil prices [6].
Oil prices remain under pressure amid fears the conflict will continue disrupting a critical shipping lane. Monitoring will continue as regional tensions escalate and military actions unfold.
