OPEC has cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 780,000 barrels per day, marking the third consecutive downward revision this year [1, 2, 3, 4]. This latest forecast is down from 970,000 bpd projected in June and 1.17 million bpd in May [1, 2, 3].
Despite reducing short-term demand outlooks, OPEC raised its forecast for 2027 global oil demand growth to 1.94 million barrels per day, up from the previous estimate of 1.73 million bpd [1, 2, 3, 4].
The group noted that global economic growth remained broadly resilient through the first half of 2026 despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. OPEC said, "Potential moderations in geopolitical tensions may provide some upside for global growth in the second half of 2026 if energy markets and trade flows stabilise further" [3].
OPEC’s forecast remains more optimistic than that of the International Energy Agency (IEA) on oil consumption and economic resilience this year [1, 3].
The forecast revisions come amid disruptions caused by the Iran war, which led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reducing Middle East oil output and affecting supply [3]. Meanwhile, OPEC+ crude oil production averaged 36.28 million barrels per day in June, about 3 million barrels per day higher than May as Gulf members resumed output halted during the Iran conflict [3].
On May 1, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially left OPEC and OPEC+ [3].
OPEC’s latest monthly report, released July 13, 2026, reflects these supply and geopolitical dynamics in its updated forecasts [1, 2, 3, 4]. The group will continue to monitor economic indicators and geopolitical developments as it prepares future outlooks.
