Opec lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 970,000 barrels per day, marking the second consecutive monthly downward revision, according to the organization’s June 11 report [1, 2]. This estimate implies total global daily oil demand of approximately 106.13 million barrels in 2026 [3].
The reduction largely reflects weaker expected demand from non-OECD countries [3]. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, Opec said, "The global economic performance in the first half of 2026 has remained resilient," in its report [1].
In contrast to the 2026 revision, Opec raised its forecast for 2027 global oil demand growth to 1.73 million barrels per day, up from prior estimates near 1.54 million bpd [1, 3, 4]. This suggests optimism about stronger oil consumption next year.
Opec also reported that Opec+ crude oil output averaged 33.13 million barrels per day in May 2026, down 190,000 bpd from April, with Iran posting the largest drop amid a US blockade [1]. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely constrained Middle East oil exports and limited production increases agreed by Opec+ since April [1].
Opec's forecast contrasts with those of the US Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency, both of which expect a decline in oil demand in 2026 due to the Iran war and other factors [1, 2]. Opec sees a smaller impact on demand from the conflict and still expects growth for the year [1, 2].
Opec’s May report had projected 2026 demand growth at 1.17 million bpd and 2027 growth at 1.54 million bpd, showing the adjustment in this month’s outlook [1, 3, 4].
Opec’s next regular monthly report is expected in July, which will update forecasts and reflect developments such as ongoing geopolitical dynamics affecting supply and demand [1].
