El Niño conditions are expected to develop between June and July 2026, with a greater than 80% probability of occurrence this year, according to climate forecasts [1, 2, 3]. Meteorological Service Singapore warned that El Niño typically brings warmer and drier weather to the region during the Southwest Monsoon season from June to September, increasing the chance of dry conditions [1, 2, 3]. "El Nino events tend to have the greatest influence on Singapore’s rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon season from June to September, increasing the chance of dry conditions," the agency said [2].
In addition, a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to develop from July to August 2026, which will further reduce cloud formation and rainfall around Singapore [1, 2, 3]. Both El Niño and the positive IOD will likely create warmer, drier weather from June through October 2026. These conditions raise the risk of transboundary haze and hotspots in Singapore and surrounding areas as dry weather facilitates smoke from land and forest fires spreading across borders [1, 2, 3].
Historical data shows the impact of strong El Niño events on Singapore’s climate. During the last strong El Niño in 2015, rainfall between June and September was about 35% below the long-term average [2, 3]. Higher temperatures also accompany El Niño: in 2016, during an El Niño weakening phase, average temperatures between March and May reached 29.2°C, roughly 1°C above the long-term average [2, 3].
The upcoming El Niño is predicted to start at moderate strength before possibly intensifying in August and September, which could heighten the drier conditions and haze risk during the peak Southwest Monsoon season [2, 3].
In response, Singapore authorities have activated haze control measures and urged residents to prepare for hotter and drier weather with possible haze episodes [3]. The combined effects of El Niño and a positive IOD mean vigilance will be required throughout the June to October period.
The period from June to October 2026 is set to be closely monitored as the expected El Niño and IOD developments unfold, with forecasts to be updated as conditions evolve [1, 2, 3].
