Global alcohol consumption volumes are expected to decline until after 2031 and remain 1% below 2025 levels by 2035, despite a 9% increase in the global number of legal-age drinkers [1, 2]. Annual per capita consumption of pure alcohol is projected to drop by the equivalent of two bottles of spirits or a case of wine per person each year by 2035 [1, 2].
Sales and stock valuations of major drinks companies like Diageo and Anheuser-Busch InBev have contracted since 2023, following a post-pandemic boom [1, 2]. The decline in consumption is driven by rising living costs, shifting consumer habits, increasing health concerns, and wider use of weight-loss drugs that may reduce drinking [1, 2].
Volumes for traditional categories such as spirits, beer, and wine are forecast to fall by 2035. However, newer formats like canned cocktails are gaining popularity [1, 2]. Demand is expected to grow sharply in emerging markets, with India’s alcohol market projected to rise 38% over the next decade and become the world’s second-largest by 2032, surpassing the United States [1, 2]. Mexico, Vietnam, and Colombia are also forecast to see consumption grow between 13% and 26% by 2035 [1, 2].
Conversely, major traditional markets including China, the United States, Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom will face declines in alcohol servings of more than 18% by 2035 [1, 2]. Marten Lodewijks, president and managing director of IWSR, said, "Changing consumer tastes were a major challenge and companies had to adapt rather than rely on past successes" [1, 2].
Global alcohol consumption volumes are expected to stop declining after 2031 but remain below current levels through 2035 [1, 2]. India is set to overtake the U.S. as the second-largest market in 2032, marking a key milestone in global industry shifts [1, 2].
