A strong El Nino event that started in June 2026 has pushed the likelihood of 2026 becoming the hottest year on record to 69% in August, up from 12% in July, according to climate scientists [1, 2, 3, 4]. The El Nino is expected to produce global temperatures exceeding those seen in 2024, with 2027 also forecast to set new heat records [1, 2, 3, 4].
The temperature in the Eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is projected to rise about 4°C above normal, significantly higher than the 2.75°C anomaly observed during the 2015-2016 El Nino event [1, 2, 3, 4]. This heating is driving powerful global weather effects, such as drought in Western and Southern Africa, Australia, and India, and increased rainfall in parts of the southern United States [1, 2, 3, 4].
July 2026 ranked among the hottest or second-hottest Julys ever recorded globally. That month saw intense heatwaves trigger destructive wildfires in France and Spain while a heat dome brought record-breaking temperatures across portions of the US [1, 2, 3, 4]. The average high temperature for the contiguous United States in July 2026 broke a 90-year-old record set during the Dust Bowl era [1, 2, 3, 4].
Scientists note that the unusually hot late spring and early summer in 2026 likely predates the El Nino’s influence [1, 2, 3, 4]. Meanwhile, Antarctica experienced an unusually cold winter this year, a contrast that Robert Rohde, chief scientist at Berkeley Earth, described as “a very, very cold Antarctic winter” [1].
The El Nino’s extreme heat and heavy rainfall are expected to amplify economic disruptions in emerging markets, especially worsening conditions brought on by the Iran war. For example, anchovy fishing off Peru has halted due to warming seas linked to El Nino [1, 2, 3, 4]. Berkeley Earth scientist Zeke Hausfather called El Nino “a giant hammer that the climate gets hit with” [3]. Rohde cautioned, “We are likely to see something quite dramatic in the next year or so. It will be giving us weather conditions that we would normally expect to be a decade or more away.” [1]
The next several months will reveal whether 2026 does become the hottest year on record, as El Nino-driven weather patterns evolve. Scientists continue to emphasize that while El Nino strongly influences annual temperature rankings, long-term climate warming driven by greenhouse gas pollution remains the underlying trend across decades [1, 2, 3, 4].
