Ukraine’s top military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said Ukrainian forces are preparing for a possible new Russian offensive coming from the north, specifically from Russia’s Bryansk region, during a June 30 interview on TSN Ukrainian television [1, 2, 3, 4]. "The most likely scenario, and this is confirmed by several data sources, is possible offensive action in the north from the territory of Russia, from the Bryansk region. This is a realistic option, of course, and we are preparing for it," Syrskyi said [1].
He indicated the most probable Russian operation would aim to seize territory in Ukraine’s Chernihiv region to stretch the Ukrainian front line, which currently faces Russia across 1,250 kilometers, and to exhaust Ukrainian reserves [1, 2, 3, 4]. Meanwhile, any attempt by Russian forces to advance toward Kyiv is judged unlikely by Ukrainian military leadership [1, 2, 3, 4].
Syrskyi also noted that while Russia previously used Belarusian territory to launch its February 2022 invasion push, Belarus is now unlikely to allow its land to be used again for such offensives. "In view of recent events, I don't think the Belarusian leadership would opt to use their own territory and give it to the aggressor to use as a staging area for an offensive operation. At the same time, of course, we are taking this possibility into account as well," he said [1].
The Ukrainian commander reported signs that Russian frontline troops are exhausted and that the intensity of battles on the front line has declined. He said Russian frontline activity has decreased by about 30% [1, 2, 3, 4]. "Russian frontline activity has declined by 30% while Ukrainian forces pressed on with a campaign of long-range strikes against Russian targets, mainly linked to the oil industry," Syrskyi added [1].
Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian assets with long-range strikes, focusing primarily on the oil industry, aiming to weaken Russia’s military capacity [1, 2, 3, 4].
The next key milestone is monitoring whether Russia initiates any such new offensive from the Bryansk region. Ukrainian forces remain on high alert and ready to respond to any northern attack attempts [1, 2, 3, 4].
