Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on May 15 that Russia seeks to draw Belarus deeper into the war by preparing military operations from Belarusian territory targeting Ukraine’s north near Chernihiv-Kyiv or potentially NATO countries to the north and west of Belarus [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]. Zelenskiy said Ukraine has intelligence of additional Russian contacts with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to persuade him to participate in new Russian military actions [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 6, 8, 9].

Belarus shares borders with Ukraine to the south and NATO members Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia to the north and west, giving it strategic importance in regional security [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9]. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Lukashenko has allowed Russian troops to use Belarusian territory but has so far refrained from deploying his own forces in combat [1, 2, 3, 7].

Belarus has agreed to host Russian tactical nuclear weapons and hypersonic Oreshnik missiles, increasing the threat posed by possible Russian operations launched from its soil [1, 2, 3, 7, 8]. Zelenskiy warned that Ukraine will defend itself if Lukashenko supports Russia’s plans to deepen Belarus’ role in the war, saying, "Ukraine will undoubtedly defend itself and its people if Alexander Lukashenko makes the wrong call and decides to support this Russian intention as well" [1, 2, 3, 7, 6, 8, 9].

Zelenskiy said he instructed Ukraine’s Defense and Security Forces to strengthen defenses in the northern Chernihiv and Kyiv directions and prepare a response plan, which will be reviewed at a military staff meeting [1, 2, 3, 7, 6, 8]. He added, "We continue to document Russia's attempts to draw Belarus deeper into the war against Ukraine" [1].

Moscow has not publicly responded to Zelenskiy’s statements and treats its military plans in Ukraine as state secrets [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9]. Zelenskiy also noted that Russia is preparing new missile and drone strikes targeting political and military command centers inside Ukraine [6].

The next scheduled step will be a review and approval of Ukraine’s response plan by its military staff as tensions rise over Belarus’ potential increased involvement in the war [6].