Spain leads the field with a 26% chance to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to a model published by Goldman Sachs in May 2023 [1, 2]. The tournament is scheduled for June 11 to July 19, 2026, and will take place across the United States, Mexico, and Canada [1, 2].
Goldman Sachs bases its predictions mainly on teams' Elo ratings, attacking ability, recent momentum, mentality, and geography, using data from nearly 20,000 competitive international matches since 1978 [1, 2]. The model simulation gives Spain an edge due to its highest Elo ranking, complemented by strong scoring talent and positive momentum ahead of the tournament. Goldman Sachs noted, "Spain is predicted to win because it has the highest Elo ranking, supported by scoring talent and good momentum into the competition" [1].
France holds the second-best odds at 19%, though its chances are weighed down by the likelihood of meeting Spain in the semifinals, making the path to the final more challenging [1, 2]. Argentina, the defending champion, ranks third with a 14% probability. However, the model factors in a "winner's slump," a pattern where reigning champions tend to underperform in the following tournament, which lowers Argentina's chances [1, 2].
Brazil and England follow with 8% and 5% chances, respectively [1, 2]. England's forecast is reduced due to historic underperformance in World Cups, geographic disadvantages, and an unfavorable draw, which also contributes to the model projecting lower odds than betting markets currently do [1, 2].
The Goldman Sachs projections broadly align with bookmakers' odds but provide a more conservative estimate for England's chances [1, 2]. The World Cup will run from June 11 through July 19, 2026, with the tournament hosted across three North American nations [1, 2].