Deutsche Bank reduced its gold price projections by up to 22%, forecasting $4,300 per ounce in Q3 and $4,800 per ounce in Q4 2026, down from earlier estimates [1, 2, 3]. The revised outlook reflects the bank’s expectation of two Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026, each 25 basis points in September and December, totaling 50 basis points [4, 5, 6, 3].

Gold prices had been near $4,140 per ounce but faced downward pressure, recently dipping below $4,000 to $3,978.67—the lowest since November 2025—as markets priced in tighter Fed monetary policy [7, 8]. Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh said, "Fed repricing, together with resilient US macro data, has played the primary role in pushing gold lower" [1].

If the Federal Reserve hikes rates three to four times, Deutsche Bank warned gold prices could fall further to around $3,800 per ounce [1, 3, 9]. Competing forecasts expect varying Fed paths, with Bank of America anticipating three hikes totaling 75 basis points in 2026—more aggressive than Deutsche Bank’s view [4, 9].

The Fed under new chair Kevin Warsh has adopted a more hawkish stance aimed at restoring price stability, shifting market expectations for interest rates and impacting gold pricing [1, 9, 10]. The US dollar’s strength and rising real yields have increased the opportunity cost of holding gold, adding to downward price pressure [9, 11].

Central bank gold purchases remain a strong source of demand offsetting weaker investor flows, while sales from gold-backed ETFs have reduced usual price support [1, 3, 9]. The pricing logic for gold has moved away from geopolitical and energy risks toward Federal Reserve policy and real interest rate factors [9]. Analysts highlight volatility and downside risk if Fed hikes restart [3, 9, 11].

Deutsche Bank first published its revised Fed rate hike forecast on June 19, 2026, and lowered gold price forecasts on June 23, 2026 [5, 6, 1, 2]. Gold prices fell below $4,000 per ounce on June 24 amid tightening expectations [7]. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to testify before Congress on July 14, providing further insight into the Fed’s policy path [10].