Fitch Ratings reaffirmed the United States' sovereign credit rating at AA+ with a stable outlook on August 15, 2026 [1, 2]. The rating agency highlighted the country's large economic scale, high per capita income, and the US dollar's role as the world's leading reserve currency as key strengths supporting the rating. "The rating is supported by the country’s large economy, high per capita income, dynamic business environment and exceptional financing flexibility stemming from the dollar’s position as the world’s leading reserve currency," Fitch said [2].
Fitch forecasts the US gross domestic product (GDP) growth to slow from 2.8% in 2025 to 1.9% during 2026 and 2027, reflecting a deceleration in economic momentum [1, 2]. Labor demand has weakened notably this year, with job creation slowing significantly in 2026 [1, 3]. Despite these challenges, Fitch noted the US economy remains resilient, saying, "Despite facing tariffs, government spending cuts, tighter border controls, and increased policy uncertainty, the US economy remains resilient" [3].
The agency projects the US government deficit to widen to 7.4% of GDP in 2026 and remain at that elevated level in 2027, marking the highest deficit ratio among AA-rated sovereign nations [2, 3]. Rising military expenditures, interest costs on debt, and growing spending on Medicare and Social Security are expected to limit efforts to reduce the deficit [2, 4]. Fitch warned that "The US government has not taken meaningful action to address its large fiscal deficits, while spending pressures are expected to intensify over the next decade due to an aging population" [2].
Government debt stood at 117% of GDP at the end of 2025 and is forecast to rise further to 123% by the close of 2028 [2, 4]. The US is expected to hit its statutory debt ceiling of $41.1 trillion around mid-2027, raising concerns about fiscal management and risks to public finances [2, 4]. Fitch identified these factors—including high fiscal deficits, substantial interest burdens, and rising government debt—as constraints on the US credit rating [2, 3].
The US credit rating has faced recent downgrades by major agencies: Fitch lowered it from AAA to AA+ in August 2023; Moody’s downgraded it from Aaa to Aa1 in May 2025; and S&P Global cut the rating from AAA to AA+ back in August 2011 [1, 5, 3].
Annual inflation is forecast to average 3.4% in 2026, above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, but expected to approach the target by the end of 2028 [2, 3].
The next major fiscal milestone will be reaching the statutory debt ceiling in mid-2027, which Fitch flagged as a critical moment for US fiscal policy [2, 4].
