The International Energy Agency said on Wednesday global oil inventories were falling at a record pace as supply disruptions tied to the Iran war hit markets, and warned the market will stay severely undersupplied until October even if the conflict ends next month. [1, 2, 3]
The IEA said global supply will not meet total demand this year and put the gap at 1.78 million barrels per day in 2026. It said more than 14 million barrels per day are shut in, with cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers topping 1 billion barrels. [4, 2, 3]
The war has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, restricting oil flows and adding to the squeeze on global supply. The IEA and related reports said strategic and commercial stockpiles are being released to offset some of the losses, but output cuts have still left inventories sliding at about 4 million barrels a day in March and April. [5, 6, 2]
OPEC also trimmed its 2026 demand growth forecast to 1.17 million barrels per day from 1.38 million, while leaving its economic growth outlook unchanged and lifting its 2027 demand growth estimate. OPEC said in its monthly report that global economic growth remains resilient despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. [5, 7, 8]
OPEC+ crude output fell by 1.74 million barrels per day in April to 33.19 million barrels per day. Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday as traders weighed the IEA outlook, OPEC's lower demand forecast and a planned Trump-Xi meeting. [5, 7, 3]
