Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has ordered a small internal team to develop a standalone prediction market app called Arena, according to multiple sources. The app, revealed in reports on June 23, 2026, will operate independently from Meta’s existing social media platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger [1, 2, 3, 4].
Arena is initially designed to operate with a video game-style points system rather than real money wagering. While many outlets agree on the points-based launch, some sources also indicate Meta has not ruled out introducing real money betting in the future[s1,s3-s5,s7,s8,s10]. Industry observers note this cautious approach comes amid increased regulatory scrutiny of real money prediction markets in the US [2, 5, 6].
Meta aims to draw on its massive user base, which combines to 3.56 billion daily active users across its platforms, to drive adoption of Arena [2, 3, 7]. Prediction markets have grown rapidly since the 2024 US presidential election, allowing users to bet on politics, sports, economic data, and entertainment events [2, 8, 6]. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have reached tens of billions in trading volume but face regulatory challenges related to potential gambling laws and market manipulation [2, 5, 6].
Meta previously launched a prediction market app called Forecast in 2020. Like Arena, Forecast used a points system instead of real money but was shut down in 2022 [6, 9, 10]. Analysts see Meta’s return to prediction markets as a sign that the concept is still nascent. Historian Jonathan D. Cohen said, "Meta shows that we are still in the early days of the prediction market experiment." [11]
Arena is one of several new standalone apps Meta is reportedly developing, alongside offerings such as Meta Photos, an AI-powered media creation tool [2, 3, 7, 6]. The company declined to comment on Arena’s development when contacted by media [1, 2, 3]. The app remains in early stages with no confirmed release date [8, 10].
According to Bernstein, global prediction market trading volume could reach $1 trillion annually by the end of the decade, underscoring the sector’s rapid growth [2, 10]. Meta’s next concrete step will be progressing Arena’s internal development, though public rollout details remain undisclosed.
