The US added 172,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in May, surpassing market forecasts, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, official data showed on June 5 [1, 2, 3]. Strong labor market gains lifted the US dollar index (DXY) to near a two-month high above 100 points by June 8-9 [1, 4, 5], while US Treasury yields climbed across maturities. Short-term yields jumped most sharply, with 2-year and 5-year yields rising more than 80 basis points since March [1, 6]. The 10-year yield reached 4.568% on June 8 [1]. Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December surged above 70%, up from about 45% a week earlier [1, 2]. Analysts said the robust US jobs report strengthened forecasts for additional Fed tightening this year. A Goldman Sachs analyst noted, "US economic data outperformance strengthens the dollar and intensifies Fed rate hike expectations" [2]. Former Fed governor Kevin Warsh said, "Given resilient economic activity and ongoing inflation pressures, the Fed may take a more hawkish stance than markets expect" [2]. However, Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to hold rates steady for the time being and predicts the dollar will weaken later in 2026 as other central banks tighten [7]. Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel raised inflation concerns and pushed Fed tightening bets higher [1, 8]. Oil prices spiked amid the conflict, though a temporary ceasefire agreement on June 8-9 eased some uncertainty [8, 9]. Meanwhile, markets reacted sharply to US and global risks. On June 5, the S&P 500 plunged 2.6%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor index fell over 10% amid fears of prolonged Fed tightening [2, 3]. Taiwan's stock index futures plunged a record 3,006 points overnight from June 5-6, a historic single-day loss triggered by contagion from US selloff [4, 5, 10]. On June 8, Taiwan's benchmark stock index closed down 1,568 points or 3.48% following continued volatility and US tech sector weakness [11, 12]. Taiwanese analyst 胡采蘋 said, "The 'avalanche' drop in Taiwan futures was brutal; stopping the fall soon is possible but a strong rebound is unlikely in short term" [4]. The Japanese yen weakened to near 160 per dollar by June 8, erasing earlier gains from Bank of Japan intervention [1, 5]. The Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit also hit multi-month lows versus the dollar [1]. Some emerging market currencies linked to commodities showed resilience despite geopolitical risks [2]. Investors await the US Consumer Price Index release due June 10-11, a key gauge expected to heavily influence Fed policy forecasts and market volatility [1, 8, 7].
US May Jobs Data Boosts Dollar, Fed Hike Odds Amid Market Turmoil
US May nonfarm payrolls rose 172,000 with steady 4.3% unemployment, lifting dollar and Fed rate hike bets amid global market selloffs.
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