George Santos, the former Republican congressman from New York, faces a federal investigation for allegedly placing bets on Kalshi, a prediction market, about whether he would attend the February 2026 State of the Union address [1, 2, 3]. Santos posted on social media platform X that he planned to attend and even discussed his outfit, saying, "I'm going to be there for the State of Union in the gallery, guys" [1, 3]. Despite his public claims, Santos did not attend the event [1, 2].
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) launched the investigation after Kalshi flagged Santos’ bets. The probe involves both the CFTC and the Justice Department [1, 2, 3]. Some sources report the DOJ is investigating Santos over these bets, while others say it is unclear if the department has formally opened a case [1, 2, 3]. Santos has declined to give a clear response, stating, "I’m not saying yes. I’m not saying no," and criticized media coverage as "rag reporting," adding, "Business as usual on my end haters!" [1].
Santos, 37, was expelled from Congress in December 2023 and sentenced to seven years in prison in April 2025 for wire fraud and identity theft. Former President Donald Trump later commuted his sentence [1, 2]. Kalshi is among several prediction market companies linked to the Trump family, with Donald Trump Jr. advising the firm since early 2025 [2].
The Santos investigation comes amid multiple recent insider trading probes involving prediction market bets, including cases with a Google employee and a US soldier betting on politically sensitive events [1, 2]. Kalshi’s ability to flag unusual bets has drawn federal attention.
The investigation into Santos and his Kalshi wagers broke publicly on June 2, 2026 [1, 2, 3]. Given ongoing inquiries by the CFTC and DOJ, further legal developments involving Santos are expected in the coming weeks.
