US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire between the US and Iran is on "massive life support," likening its chances of survival to just 1 percent after he rejected Iran's latest peace offer on May 11 [1, 2, 3]. Trump described Iran's peace proposal as "totally unacceptable" and insisted the US would achieve a complete victory over Iran [1, 2, 3].
Iran's parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf responded by saying there is "no alternative but to accept the points laid out in Iran's 14-point proposal rejected by Mr Trump," warning that delays would only cause more failure and cost American taxpayers [1]. He added that Iran's armed forces were ready to "teach a lesson for any aggression" [2].
The fragile ceasefire, which took effect April 7, has largely halted fighting in the Gulf despite intermittent exchanges of fire and blockades, especially in the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for about 20 percent of global oil and LNG shipments [3, 4, 2, 3]. Both the US and Iran have imposed overlapping blockades on the Strait, disrupting oil exports by as much as 100 million barrels per week [4].
Oil prices rose sharply amid the tensions, with Brent crude near $105 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude at about $99 as of May 12 [4, 2]. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that delays in reopening the Strait could push market normalization into 2027 [4, 1, 2]. Suvro Sarkar, an energy analyst, said optimism for a peace deal by the end of May is fading and added that without a deal, "upside risks for oil prices are definitely on the table" [4].
The US is also targeting individuals and companies that help Iran ship oil to China with sanctions, adding pressure on Tehran amid ongoing talks [4, 3]. President Trump met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14 for over two hours to discuss regional stability and bilateral ties [5, 6].
Peace efforts remain stalled amid Iranian leadership divisions, frustrating US diplomacy and increasing the risk of further oil price spikes [3, 4]. The conflict has triggered the largest global energy supply shock ever, causing fertilizer shortages that threaten food supplies worldwide [1, 2].
The next concrete step will be the expected end-of-May target for a peace deal, though growing doubts have emerged about reaching any agreement by then [4].
