El Niño has developed in the tropical Pacific and is expected to rapidly strengthen to a strong event between July and September 2026, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on July 3 [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]. The event is forecast to reach the third highest classification among four levels, with seasonal sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2°C above normal in key monitoring regions of the tropical Pacific [1, 6, 2, 7, 3, 4, 5].
El Niño is a recurring natural climate phenomenon marked by elevated sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, typically occurring every 2 to 7 years and lasting 9 to 12 months [1, 6, 2, 3, 4, 5]. The current event is expected to continue strengthening during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and influence global weather patterns, including warming of the equatorial Atlantic Basin [1, 6, 2, 7, 4, 5].
WMO chief Celeste Saulo said, "El Nino conditions are already under way and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event. This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions" [1]. The agency warned that regions such as the Indian subcontinent, much of Australia, parts of the tropical Indian Ocean, and Central America and the Caribbean will likely face below-normal rainfall [6, 2, 5]. Meanwhile, parts of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and the northern Gulf of Guinea are expected to see above-normal rainfall [6, 2, 5].
East Africa may experience increased rainfall and flood risk from September to December due to the combined influence of El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole, though this forecast has medium confidence [2]. Europe may have contrasting rainfall patterns, with wetter-than-average conditions in the south and drier-than-average in the north, but confidence for this is low [5].
The last El Niño contributed to 2023 becoming the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the hottest, with global temperatures about 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels [1, 4]. Experts note that temperature spikes and extreme weather impacts typically peak between November and February, often lagging the peak El Niño event [1, 6, 2, 4].
The WMO and partners have launched early warning and coordination efforts to help governments and communities prepare for the expected impacts [2, 3, 5]. The peak period for El Niño impacts is forecast for November 2026 through February 2027 [1, 6, 2, 4].
As July begins, Europe is already experiencing record high temperatures, with a recent all-time high of 41.7°C recorded in Germany, indicating early signs of climate stress linked to El Niño conditions, WMO scientists said [2].
