France's population is expected to reach its highest point at around 69.8 million in 2037 before entering a steady decline, according to projections from the national statistics institute INSEE and other sources [1, 2].
As of 2026, France's population stood at approximately 69.1 million [1, 2]. From 2026 to 2037, population growth will rely almost entirely on net immigration, as natural population growth turned negative in 2025 when deaths began to exceed births [1, 2]. INSEE stated, "Population growth over the next decade would be driven entirely by net migration, as France's natural balance turned negative in 2025" [2]. The annual net migration is assumed to remain stable at around 150,000 people until 2037 [2].
The fertility rate, which influences natural growth, is projected to stabilize at 1.45 children per woman from 2028 onwards [2]. If migration falls or fertility drops below this level, the population could shrink significantly, potentially to as low as 54.6 million by 2070, though that is a less certain scenario [1].
By 2070, France's population is forecast to decrease to about 65.9 million, close to levels seen in 2014 [1, 2]. Demographically, the elderly population is set to increase sharply. Those aged 65 and older will be about twice the size of those under 20 years old by 2070 [1]. Furthermore, the number of people aged 80 and over is expected to more than double, reaching roughly 9 million [1, 2]. The number of centenarians could quadruple, reaching around 160,000 by that year [1, 2].
The aging population will also impact dependency ratios. By 2040, there will be 49 people aged 65 or over per 100 people aged 20 to 64, rising to 62 per 100 by 2070 [2]. This signals a growing old-age support burden on the working-age population.
The key timeline includes the start of negative natural population growth in 2025, the population peak in 2037, the projected aging burden ramping in 2040, and the significant demographic shifts by 2070 [1, 2].
