Taiwan's population, which peaked at approximately 23.6 million in 2019, is expected to decline by nearly half to around 12.15 million by 2075, a 48% drop, according to multiple government forecasts [1, 2, 3]. The working-age group (ages 15-64) faces an even steeper decline, shrinking from just over 12 million in 2026 to about 5.13 million by 2075 [1, 2]. Meanwhile, the elderly population (65 and older) will rise sharply, peaking at 7.71 million in 2050 before declining slightly to 6.43 million in 2075 [1, 2, 3].
Demographic shifts will drastically alter Taiwan's age structure. By 2075, only 4.8% will be children aged 0-14, 42.3% working-age adults, and a majority 52.9% elderly [2, 4, 5]. The population median age will rise from 46.4 years in 2026 to 67.1 years in 2075 [4, 5]. Dependency on the shrinking workforce will increase sharply, with the total dependency ratio climbing from 47.2 per 100 working-age adults in 2026 to 136.6 in 2075 [3, 4]. By 2037, over half of the labor force will be aged 45 to 64, signaling an older workforce [3].
Taiwan’s fertility rate has plunged to an estimated 0.695 in 2025, well below the replacement level and previous estimates, accelerating population decline [4, 5, 6]. The newborn count has dropped below 100,000 in 2025 and is projected to fall below 94,000 in 2026 [3, 7]. The population decline is linked to low fertility, fewer women of childbearing age, and falling marriage rates [3, 4, 5].
The government has elevated population and family policies to a national strategic level and created a Population Strategy Taskforce since May 2026 to address population aging and labor shortages. The taskforce’s agenda includes family support, elder care services, talent cultivation, and attracting global talent, according to Executive Yuan spokesperson Li Huizhi [2, 3]. National Development Council director Xie Jiayi noted, “Taiwan’s fertility rate remains at a low level, and the population structure is leaving behind a labor-rich era, with aging and population decline becoming increasingly evident.” [3]
On timeline projections, Taiwan’s population is expected to fall below 20 million by 2045 to approximately 19.98 million, with elderly accounting for 37% of the population. The elderly share peaks in 2050 [2, 3, 4].
Taiwan faces continuing demographic challenges through mid-century and beyond as it adapts to a rapidly shrinking, aging population and workforce [1, 2, 3]. The government’s Population Strategy Taskforce is expected to release further policy plans in the coming months.
