Gold prices climbed above $4,100 per ounce in early July, hitting their highest level since June 23, following weaker-than-expected US employment figures released July 2 [1, 2, 3]. The number of US nonfarm payrolls increased by just 57,000 in June, well below the market forecast of about 110,000, prompting investors to reassess expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes [1, 3]. The CME FedWatch tool indicated the probability of a Fed rate hike in September dropped from around 66% to 45.6% after the June jobs data [1, 3]. David Meger from High Ridge Futures noted that the lower-than-expected employment growth "signals a reduced chance of rate hikes later this year," adding that "gold tends to perform better in a low interest rate environment" [3].
Gold headed for its first weekly gain since May, rising approximately 2.2% through July 3 [1, 2]. The precious metal's rally was supported by easing inflation concerns alongside these weakening labour market signals. Bart Melek, TD Securities, highlighted that "lower energy prices and softer job growth suggest inflationary pressures are likely to ease in the months ahead" [2]. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh acknowledged reducing inflation risks but reaffirmed commitment to the 2% inflation target, without providing explicit policy guidance [4, 5, 6, 7]. Warsh said, "近幾週價格風險已經下降，同時重申決心要將通膨拉回2%的目標" [7].
Volatility in gold prices was also influenced by geopolitical factors, notably the US-Iran conflict and related peace talks, which have introduced uncertainty into markets [8, 9, 10, 11]. Between July 8 and 10, gold prices consolidated near $4,100 amid mixed signals on Fed policy and Middle East tensions [8]. Following a US-Iran temporary ceasefire agreement on July 29, gold prices slipped about 1.4% as inflation worries eased [9]. However, the dollar's strength in early August pressured gold prices, causing Asian spot gold to dip below $4,000 per ounce on August 4 [10, 11].
Other precious metals—silver, platinum, and palladium—also participated in the recent rally, reflecting broader safe-haven demand [1, 3, 6]. Meanwhile, global central banks resumed net gold purchases in May, adding 41 metric tons to official reserves, supporting underlying demand [1, 8].
The gold market remains sensitive to evolving US economic data and geopolitical developments. The next key date will be the Federal Reserve's September meeting, where rate decisions will be closely watched amid the shifting outlook shaped by recent employment data and global tensions [1, 3].
